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How to trade
Trading means buying or selling shares. The price of a share, between 1 and 99 cents, corresponds (roughly) to the market’s estimate of the probability of that event taking place.
Example: The Donald Trump outcome in a presidential winner market trading at $0.51 indicates the market believes he has a roughly 51% probability of winning, at the given moment.
Buy shares in an outcome when you perceive the price is too low, or when you think your fellow traders are underestimating this likelihood.
The value of your shares will change over time. You may decide to sell your shares later on, either to take some profit or stop a loss. Or, you can hold onto your shares until the market closes. At that point, if the event in the market has taken place, shares will return $1.
You can get an idea of how prices correspond with implied probabilities and payouts below:
Augur Buy Price | Winning Payout | Payout Ratio | 'American' Odds | Implied Probability |
$0.10 | $1.00* | 9:1 | +1000 | 10% |
$0.25 | $1.00* | 3:1 | +300 | 25% |
$0.40 | $1.00* | 1.5:1 | +150 | 40% |
$0.50 | $1.00* | 1:1 | +100 | 50% |
$0.75 | $1.00* | 1:3 | -300 | 75% |
$0.90 | $1.00* | 1:9 | -900 | 90% |
Let's go step-by-step through the recommended trading process:
Once you've found a market you'd like to trade and are on the market's page, examine the market’s question and market details. Check there is sufficient liquidity for your trade or your transaction may fail.
Now, let's start your order!
You can buy shares in an outcome if you believe it will occur or that the price of the outcome will rise from its current level. The order ticket is set to buy as default but if you wish to sell your existing shares, you can switch the toggle to sell.
Select the outcome you want to buy or sell. Each outcome has a price next to it. This price is between $0.01 and $0.99 (where the price roughly corresponds with probability, $0.99 = 99%). Every winning share pays $1 (minus fees).
Enter how much you want to buy or sell of your chosen outcome. The price impact is shown below in the brackets and is affected when there is low liquidity in the pool relative to the order size. Larger orders may suffer from price impact so be sure to check this.
Slippage is the expected % difference between the quoted and executed prices. Low liquidity can cause increased slippage. You may be asked to increase the slippage in order for your trade to go through.
At the bottom of the betslip you'll see the breakdown of estimates for your order. Check to make sure everything looks good:
Average Price: The difference between the market price and the estimated price due to trade size.
Estimated Shares: The estimated number of outcome shares you'll receive.
Max Profit: The maximum amount of profit you stand to make from this trade.
Estimated Fees (shares): Market fees are paid in shares. Here you get an estimate of how much will go to the market creator and liquidity providers.
Hit the Buy Or Sell button at the bottom of the order ticket.
You will be asked to sign an approval in your wallet in order to allow Augur Turbo to interact with it and move funds.
You'll be asked to sign a transaction in your wallet for any action that requires a transaction. Such actions include buying, selling, claiming and signing approvals. These are paid for using the $MATIC token and should cost less than $0.01 for each at the time of writing. All transaction fees goes to paying the network costs.
Congratulations, you've placed an order!
Now that you own shares, you can view them on the market page or portfolio page under the positions tab, buy more, sell them, or wait till the market is finalized to claim your winnings should you own winning shares.